On Models of Coordination Activity and its Disruption:

In support of threat evaluation stage of Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB) for asymmetric opponents, we are developing a modeling and metrics framework to: • predict the emergent coordination or disruption of activity in social systems models that i. employ regulating feedback, often construed as violence, as a means of achieving goals, and ii. use learning (evolutionary and/or template-based) to improve performance; • assess whether the observed system possesses an optimal fitness state that i. can be attained quickly via a decentralized search strategy and ii. is robust to small perturbations of rule parameters or environment; • assess the likelihood that the system can attain such an optimized state.